On the web, 2007 was the year of the social web. Things like Facebook and Twitter have accelerated the way people can interact socially even at a distance. It’s a bit obvious to say that our possibilities to communicate will only get better next year. Internet is a communication network beneath it all.
Innovation isn’t about copying and yet no doubt we’ll see copies of aforementioned services in 2008. This of course depends on how the US economy and therefore VC funds will hold up. As we have seen before, changes are quick and some of the huge web properties might end up irrelevant next year. Will something like OpenSocial really matter? We’ll see.
Below all this Facebook SaaS Web as a cloud ideology, there’s an undercurrent that I find very interesting. As I wrote in October when Google bought Jaiku, XMPP/Jabber/Google Talk is a technology to watch for. Since the acquisition, we haven’t heard much about Google’s plans for Jaiku. As I also wrote, I think it was the technology they were after, not the service itself. Could a social notification system built on RSS feeds, mobile phones and XMPP somehow fit Google’s strategy?
Google has strongly positioned GTalk as the communications platform across its many services. GTalk has been integrated for a while in GMail and to some extent this is similar what you get in Yahoo Mail/Messenger and Microsoft Live Mail/Messenger. You might have read about Google’s recent poorly received integration of GTalk into Google Reader. You may have noticed that Google Docs now offer collaboration through Google Talk. There’s even GTalk integration in Orkut and my sources tell me more is on the way. Even YouTube has availability information of people watching the same video as you (This isn’t probably based on XMPP, but could be?).
Because of their closed nature, MSN/Live Messenger, AIM or Yahoo Messenger cannot leverage their networks outside their own properties. Google Talk users can interact (to some extent) with any XMPP user and other developers can create services for Google Talk users. This is important in a world that is not desktop-bound, but where services and applications are in the web cloud.
For some time XMPP had the problem that it was too ahead of its time and could not compete with the big players. Social web and Google has changed these. Now Live Messenger is playing catch-up with upcoming features like “Multiple points of presence support”, which is something essential to the XMPP-protocol. Microsoft could overthrow other players in the IM market through distributing Messenger with their operating system, like they did with Internet Explorer. The rules of the game have changed on the web and Google has realized they can be the next IM king by integrating their solution everywhere they can. They can introduce Google Talk to anyone with a Gmail account and without any download.
If it isn’t clear enough from above, what I predict to continue in 2008 is integration of IM or instant communication on the web. We won’t see one unified network to rule them all or anything like it. We’ll see advances to a future telecom operators and their ads would want to us believe is today. Yet they’re the ones stonewalling the development of internet on mobile phones. In reality, they are defending their networks against their Internet and web-based rivals. We won’t see iPhone or Android making a big impact on the mobile market, not yet.
What I hope is that devices like Apple’s iPhone & iPod Touch and platforms like Google’s Android will make SMS obsolete preferably through something open and web-friendly like XMPP and not something cooked-up by telecom operators. Microsoft is already offering Live Messenger on mobiles, but these are deals with telecom operators. My hope lies with Google and Nokia in this one. (See for example Nokia’s Gizmo client for S60. Coincidentally, Gizmo uses XMPP for IM.)
And yes, I’m predicting an instant communication nirvana even though my contact list is still mostly empty.
While I agree with the general thesis, that things will become more and more meshed, there are certain points I do not agree with or why I don’t think the meshing will go anywhere beyond the internet soon.
For one, innovative or cool technology has never been a guarantee for success. I thought it was a genius-move of Facebook to open up (partially) after Open Social was announced, and similarly I somehow have more faith in Twitter as a mass-medium than Jaiku, as well as MSN-messenger vs. Google-talk.
The explanation is simply the network-effect. People will stay on Facebook, even with Open Social, because that’s where their friends are and because they know that they can migrate if they want to (that’s an illusion, but a good one). Same with Twitter or MSM. Also, none of the competing technologies offer clear advantages _for users_ that would encourage them to switch.
The other side is telecoms. I think it’s encouraging that Sprint (or was it Verizon) announced their opening-up “marketing scheme” (I’m always sceptical). But there are plenty of operators out there, who will not touch something like that with a 10-foot pole, and because sms is a money-maker, it is not going to get replaced anytime soon.
Before we see a meshing, I think we need a lot of infrastructure-changes to bypass the mobile operators. In the US, I guess Google is happening, as well as the 700 mhz-thing. In Scandinavia, I know they are pretty progressive, as well as in some Asian countries. In the rest of the world, I’m afraid it will be decades before we see any “meshing” like what is happening on the internet.
Comment by Vincent van Wylick — December 28, 2007 @ 18:23
Vincent, you’re correct that network-effect causes masses to stay at some service. Yet, before Messenger and Facebook, people used some other services like ICQ and Myspace. I was pointing out the integration of IM into its services by Google as the main advantage for users and use it to lure people away from competitors. It can get users easily, because it doesn’t even have to distribute any application for the user to install. Many people might be Google Talk users and not know it.
I’m very skeptical about mobile operators, too. But they are fighting a losing battle. SMS is a money-maker, but it so outdated technology that it hurts and MMS is an awful hack that should’ve never happened in a perfect world. The sad thing is that on the TCP/IP stack that works on 3G there are alternatives, but the because of their business logic, mobile operators can’t get their premiums from bulk internet traffic. They still hang to their walled gardens that their customers don’t like.
Some operators have started to sell what they call “mobile broadband” here in Finland, which basically a flat rate mobile internet subscription. Unfortunately the major players are still believing 20 MB per month is good enough at 20 euros per month (!!). The best my operator offers right now is 1 euro for 1 hour, which I have used in a pinch couple of times.
It’s soon 2008 and I still don’t have e-mail on my mobile. This functionality doesn’t warrant a 100% increase on my cell phone expenses, no matter what the telecom operators believe.
Comment by Kari Silvennoinen — December 28, 2007 @ 21:14
Kari, I wish you the very best for Finland in 2008! Concerning Germany there is no “instant communication nirvana” in sight (yet). The position of traditional telecom companies still is too strong and there is no public debate about the possibilities of mobile internet access.
The iPhone is a nice gadget with not very much discussion in media and the plans of Google (Android…) only get attention from experts and geeks.
Since Siemens left the field of mobile devices public interest in our country clearly dropped down concerning all aspects of this sector (technology, innovations, marketleaders, marketpositions…).
So how to fight the “closed shop principals” of telecom companies? I have no idea…
By the way: Vodafone tries to sell a mobile internet flat rate in Germany for Samsung’s new Qbowl-device for “only” 100,- Euro per month. Isn’t that a good price to get e-mail on your mobile?
Comment by Matthias — December 30, 2007 @ 13:23
Truthfully, I have no problem with paying EUR 50-100 per month for an internet-connection, as long as I can use it both on the road and as a modem for my other devices (laptop, etc.).
But right now the market is very fragmented and it’s hard to know who will win in the end. And until these questions are resolved, I’m afraid it will be instant communication nirvana only on a very localised level.
In any case, happy New Year all !!!
Comment by Vincent van Wylick — December 31, 2007 @ 16:15
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